THE Ulster Unionist Conference on Saturday was a major success for a party supposedly dead on its knees a few years ago.

Yet the key to that success –the new deal with David Cameron and the Tories – inevitably overshadowed the rest of the event.

And it served to highlight the dangers for the UUP in intertwining its fortunes with those of another party.

The venture, undoubtedly, has potential: for the UUP, the Conservatives, Northern Ireland and the Union.

But it could just as easily go belly-up fast – and as soon as next June European elections.

And one fear for the UUP is that, either way, Sir Reg and co will not have full control of their own destiny from this point on.

On the upside, the positives, for now, outweigh the negatives.

The lift that the renewed Tory-link has given the UUP was tangible all weekend.

This was the biggest attendance at any party conference in Northern Ireland, in recent memory – and a party dinner, the night before, was also sold out.

There is a definite buzz about the Ulster Unionists, and the signs of a new relevance for a party which just a couple of years ago was said to be on its knees.

Then there was the now all-important Cameron factor.

He came to conference, he saw and with style and a brilliantly crafted speech – tailored to pluck at the heart strings of the unionist faithful – he conquered.

All the right buttons were pushed in an address aiming to convince the UUP grassroots that this is not just a marriage of convenience but a bond that can last.

However, following a standing ovation for the esteemed guest, the comedown (which, to be fair, the UUP leadership knew would be there) also harshly exposed the Ulster Unionists ,in a less favourable light, than the one that shone like a halo over Cameron.

Sir Reg’s speech was flat and certainly would not rank among his best, nor his best delivered. It was a bit of a lost cause, coming-on after the main event.

The stage set – in comparison to the modern and expensive design used by the DUP a month before – looked thrown together and tired; failing to portray a swish, professional operation.

And then there was just a feeling, at times, that the sheer force of will that is the thundering Cameron bandwagon, was dwarfing the UUP and its proud 100-year history.

An indication, at least when Cameron is around, that the unionist party takes second billing in this relationship – even if, on paper, the deal gives the two have equal status.

Nevertheless, the Ulster Unionists admit they are still a party re-building and lessons will be learned from a conference they hope will be looked back upon as landmark moment for the party.

To some degree, on reflection, the Cameron visit was almost something to get out of the way (as much as it was a propaganda coup).

Because now the way is clear for the fixers in the two parties to get on with the real business of drafting policies, fighting elections and seeing if they can really fulfil the promise of their partnership for all of Northern Ireland and the Union.

Local rock band Ash do not normally lock onto the political radar, but leafing through the latest edition of music magazine NME I was intrigued to read about Tim Wheeler’s proudest achievement.

 

The Downpatrick singer recalled the band’s 1998 gig in the Waterfront Hall with U2, to back a yes vote in the Referendum, and spoke of the event as a pivotal moment which “swung” the vote in the face of “a big No campaign”.

 

Now to be fair, I remember the show, for an audience of teenagers and students who either couldn’t vote or wouldn’t care to vote.

 

We had Bono in his egotistical element, mixing politics, pop and pompousness and re-inflating his sense of self-importance.

 

John Hume, meanwhile, was busy connecting with the kids – delving deep into his repertoire of embarrassing but obligatory thumbs-up.

 

And David Trimble was rocking uneasily back on his heels and grinning like the playground outsider, who had just been invited to the cool-kids’ party, as Bono raised his arm aloft for a typical iconic Bono moment.

 

As Tim Wheeler – who was there somewhere  – remembers too, the event made the headlines and was “on the bongs on News At Ten” – making it an image of the times we were living through.

 

But his recollection of this being the point where the Yes cavalry came over the hill and rescued the peace from “a No campaign that seemed like it might wreck everything”, seems a bit revisionist to say the least.

 

The idea that some middle ground unionist in North Antrim, sipping his hot milk and leafing through the Belfast Agreement, would be swayed by Bono and Ash’s ringing endorsement of the deal, is a stretch of the imagination too far.

 

In fact, more likely they would be itching to say “no, no and no again”.

 

If there is one lesson to be learned from Tim’s memories, it is that the old adage that “pop and politics don’t mix” still holds, because when the two collide the truth gets lost in the middle. 

The word is that after donating £900 million to the Stormont coffers, Prime Minister Gordon Brown is likely to continue to look favourably on requests for further financial assistance, in the weeks and months ahead – to underpin devolution and the transfer of policing and justice powers.
But with the true cost of devolution having begun to emerge over recent weeks – the question is, can Northern Ireland we afford it?
We are already dependent on the mainland British taxpayer to the tune of £7 billion a year.
Without this money the Province could not function.
The overburden on public sector jobs – with their pull of the public purse – and the need for the private sector to be grown (at a time of global economic decline) only adds to a sorry picture.
And now, Ulster’s political leaders are having to beg at the door of 10 Downing Street for financial help, as a growing list of new items in the debit account grows.
Is this the outworkings of our politicians’ failure to secure a much talked about significant financial package to accompany the DUP-Sinn Fein power-sharing deal last year?
Is it poor financial planning in the first devolved Budget?
Are these simply harsh economic realities now coming home to roost, after the withdrawal of the Direct Rule-nanny state?
Or have we a case to make, when Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness tell Gordon Brown we have been dealt an unfair hand (under the Barnett Formula money handed down by the UK Treasury) which does not take account of the legacy of under-spend on public services that characterized the Troubles and is now having to be addressed by the Stormont Executive?
The truth may lie, as ever, somewhere in-between all of these points.
The fact is, though the Executive has yet to admit it, a black-hole is emerging in the public finances as one after another new and unforeseen debts mount.
**Executive assets (land and property) have plummeted in value over recent weeks, leaving a blank where projected receipts from sales was supposed to be.
**Water rates income is badly needed but the administration does not want to burden the public, at a time of spiralling living costs.
**The energy crisis demands attention, in the shape of a fuel poverty package from Stormont.
**The Civil Service back-pay requirement – £200 million – has been dumped in the Finance Minister’s in-tray, even though it is a hangover from Whitehall rule;
**The regional rates have been frozen for three years by the Executive, as a stimulus to homeowners but to the detriment of the Stormont finances.
**And now local councils are in £380 million of debt, and looking to the finance minister for help.
The list keeps growing, the economic climate looks darker by the minute, and you have to wonder how deep Mr Brown’s pockets are going to remain in the weeks and months ahead.

The deal to break the Stormont deadlock could be built on unsteady foundations.

With Peter Robinson sticking to his bottom-line of not giving a date for devolving policing and justice, there is the look of a sticking plaster job about the DUP-Sinn Fein agreement.

While the two main parties have defied the critics to find a way through the impasse, for now, there is a feeling they may be storing up more trouble for further down the line.

Mr Robinson has cleverly avoided getting himself stuck on the hook of a date.

But the process of moving forward is now hanging on some sort of understanding that the transfer of powers will happen within months – not political lifetimes.

And this throws up a quandary for the DUP.

With a European election due in June, and Jim Allister snapping at the party’s heels, can the DUP afford to get into a selling exercise with the unionist public on devolving law and order responsibilities.

Will that not be fertile ground for the TUV to take root upon?

Won’t that potentially jeopardise what remains of the DUP’s hardline?

And how will it go down internally?

The DUP leadership may decide it has enough in the bag – no Sinn Fein minister, not Sinn Fein role in appointing the judiciary etc – to go for devolution.

But if it cannot do this because of the TUV, and an election, then does it not risk another stand-off with Sinn Fein – and where does that leave the Stormont experiment and Peter Robinson’s leadership; lurching from crisis to crisis.

A serious fight with either republicans or the TUV lies ahead.

It remains a high-wire act for the DUP, which will also be open to claims of history repeating, if (as in 2007, when it ran an election campaign and then surprised everyone by agreeing to Sinn Fein power-sharing immediately after) it ventures into the poll with the policing question still hanging over it.

There are a few twists and turns yet before policng and justice is sorted.

Talks between the DUP and Ulster Unionists on maximising the unionist vote had been expected this week, but will not now take place.

It had been hoped that the discussions would take place on November 13 or 14, but the UUP has confirmed that it proved impossible to find a time to meet.

A spokesperson has insisted the discussions are not off, but simply on hold.

When the parties meet, voting pacts, strategies for increasing unionist turnout and the possibility of running single unionist candidates in South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (in a General Election) will be on the agenda.

However, if the UUP and Tories do some sort of co-operation deal which will see them run on a joint ticket at forthcoming elections, it is firmly understood that they will not be stepping aside in any constituencies – meaning a long anticipated UUP-DUP deal in South Belfast and Fermanagh cannot happen.

The Conservatives have made it clear they intend to run in every single constituency in the United Kingdom at the next General Election and sources say that pledge will be kept.

This is sure to create ructions between the DUP and Ulster Unionists and lead to accusations that the UUP is playing into the hands of nationalism in both seats.

It would also undermine the effectiveness of any pact between the main unionist parties.