THE DUP’s tactic of fielding Arlene Foster in the Enniskillen by-election worked – in that it spared it any Dromore-type blushes and saved the seat from the clutches of Sinn Fein.
It also increased its share of the first preference vote, from 28.2 per cent in 2005 to just over 30 per cent, this time out. So, job done; a welcome boost for leader Peter Robinson; and a triumph for Mrs Foster, given that she was the one who put her own career on the line.
But the DUP may well be taking note of points of concern too, given that everything in this election was in its favour and the conditions suggested a Foster win.
Unlike Dromore there was no Traditional Unionist Voice candidate to undermine the Mrs Foster’s tally.
She also ran as a popular and high profile candidate – way ahead of the rest of the contenders and the UUP entry (Basil Johnston), in terms of familiarity and standing.
And the UUP tactic of forcing a by-election for a seat vacated by the death of DUP Councillor Joe Dodds, was always a high risk move which was never the way to go about winning friends and influencing people.
Yet the DUP’s biggest rivals, in the UUP, still managed to hold-up their end of the vote; meaning they are again able to crow that rumours of their political death had been greatly exaggerated – they do seem to have turned a corner.
At a glance, however, the big underlying story of the Fermanagh election has to be the slump in the nationalist vote which, for whatever reason, just did not turnout in big enough numbers.
This was disastrous for the SDLP – down from around 18 per cent of the vote share in 2005, to just 11 per cent this time (from a party which 10 years ago was leading nationalism, under John Hume).
This could also have had an impact on the party’sr thinking over future options – including whether or not to amalgamate or form a pact with Fianna Fail.
And Sinn Fein too will be trying to calculate if a general nationalist apathy has cost them, in terms of both first preference votes or transfers.
In 2005, the combined Sinn Fein/SDLP vote was 4070. This time (noting the 158 votes that went to independent republican candidate Karen McHugh and overall turnout was down) it was 2554 – where did around 1,500 people disappear too?
** First preference votes in the Ennisikillen by-election 2008: Arlene Foster (DUP) – 1,925; Debbie Coyle (Sinn Fein) – 1,816; Basil Johnston (UUP) – 1,436; Rosemary Flanagan (SDLP) – 739; Dr Kumar Kamble (Alliance) – 231; Karen McHugh (Independent) – 158
Turnout – just over 50 per cent. Total votes cast – 6,380
First preference votes, per party, in the 2005 Enniskillen vote: SF: 2,486 (28.5%), DUP: 2,454 (28.2%), UUP: 1,785 (20.5%), SDLP: 1,584 (18.2%), Soc Party: 406 (4.7%)